国际发展非洲农业具有竞争潜力的产品的执行方案

 

 

执行摘要

  1. 根据非洲农业综合发展计划(CAADP),非洲发展新伙伴关系(NEPAD)力求通过促进以提高产出生产力和效率为基础的农业经济增长,并促进其他方面的发展,从而在短期内扭转非洲的农业危机。尚未开发的比较优势。为了在非洲农业综合发展计划下有效分配稀缺的金融资源,需要在非洲内外以相对较少的努力来确定、开发和贸易具有比较优势的农产品。投资必须具有较高的商业成功概率、预期正回报和经济可行性。

 

  1. 面对一体化的全球和区域经贸体系日益重要,非洲次区域和国家需要共同发挥各自比较优势。考虑到这一要求,本研究旨在:

 

按次区域和国家确定具有潜在竞争力的农作物、牲畜、林业和渔业产品,这些产品不仅可以有意义地促进非洲大陆的粮食安全和减少贫困,而且可以显着改善其世界和区域内贸易前景。

根据对每个次区域潜在农业生态和社会经济制约因素的分析,确定广泛的行动领域和投资类型,以开发选定的潜在竞争产品。

 

  1. 为了利用规模经济并达到推动国家和区域层面生产力和收入增长的临界质量,主要(五个)农业生态次区域确定了具有潜在竞争力的农产品。这些区域与整个非洲现有区域经济集团的领土大致一致。

 

  1. 本研究以粮农组织在非洲积累的技术知识和经验为基础。为了估计潜在竞争农产品所需的筛选参数,粮农组织使用了1996-2000年期间的土地利用、牲畜存量、产量和生产力、贸易和生产者价格等所分析产品的时间序列国家数据。比较优势和竞争力的概念是分析和选择单个产品的创收和出口潜力的基础。

 

  1. 具有潜在竞争力的次区域作物/动物类型的选择是基于生产与贸易机会的标准。这一选择不仅反映了每种产品在生产结构中的重要性,也反映了其贸易潜力。相对重要性(即以世界贸易单位值表示的该次区域总产出中每种作物/动物类型的比例超过 5%)一直是筛选指标。占次区域总产量不到 5% 但超过国家贸易总产值 5% 的潜在竞争作物/动物类型被指定为具有潜在竞争性的“国家特定”作物/动物类型。将次区域和国家层面当前的生产模式与根据生产和贸易机会标准筛选得出的生产模式进行比较有时令人惊讶。然而,人们认识到,还有其他原因可能导致投资产品的优先顺序。长期严重依赖进口可能就是其中之一,例如西非的大米。

 

  1. 由于林业/渔业产品按类别的时间序列数据无法获取和/或不完整,林业和渔业资源的自然禀赋(按次区域和国家)一直是筛选参数。根据森林和林地面积占非洲总面积的比例,确定了林业发展和野生动物保护方面具有潜在竞争力的次区域/国家。位于专属经济海洋区(EEMZ)内的次区域或国家的面积被视为海洋渔业发展潜力的代理指标。

 

  1. 尝试评估作物的技术和成本竞争力。由于无法获得完整的生产成本数据,生产者价格被用作评估当前技术水平下作物成本竞争力的代理指标。生产者价格是一个合适的代理指标,因为它是观察到的农民每单位产出的收入,并且包含了基本的生产成本。对于出口作物,世界价格(以离岸出口价格表示)代表了政府考虑刺激国内生产和出口的基准。生产者价格与世界价格之间的差异同时包含了一系列影响作物并导致生产者价格与世界出口价格背离的国内因素的影响。粮农组织统计数据库(FAOSTAT)中缺乏农作物生产者价格的历史数据和最新数据,限制了对 1991-1995 年期间的价格递延分析。

 

  1. 筛选过程产生了以下在次区域一级具有潜在竞争力的作物。正如预期的那样,传统出口作物对各次区域具有很高的竞争潜力(东非为咖啡,西非沿海为可可和山药,中非和萨赫勒西非为花生)。橄榄和小麦被选为北非的一些潜在竞争作物。葡萄、玉米、甘蔗、蔬菜和烟草有望扩大南部非洲的生产和贸易。小米、高粱和花生被确定为西非萨赫勒地区的潜在竞争作物。

 

  1. 潜在竞争作物的指定有时与次区域一级土地覆盖的实际份额(表明“自然适宜性”)存在显着差异。例如:

 

尽管蔬菜和水果在次区域土地面积中所占份额相对较小,但在所有次区域(西非萨赫勒地区的水果除外)都具有重要的经济作用和贸易潜力。令人惊讶的是,在北非,蔬菜覆盖的土地面积不到 5%,尽管它们占次区域产出贸易值的 44%。在西非沿海地区,蔬菜和水果已被添加到次区域潜在竞争作物清单中,消除了玉米、小米、水稻和高粱(这些作物似乎在非洲该地区找到了天然适宜的条件)。

 

水稻被选为西萨赫勒和中非萨赫勒(乍得)的潜在竞争作物,尽管其生产和贸易潜力很小(占次区域贸易产值的 7%)。在乍得,蔬菜和大米在该国生产中的经济重要性超过了籽棉(以世界贸易价值表示)。

 

在中部非洲,咖啡和可可在次区域生产中所占的份额(以世界贸易价值表示)不超过 5%,而这两种作物在次区域种植模式中所占比例为 17-18%。同样,油棕果、玉米和高粱对该次区域总产值贸易值的贡献较小,平均不到百分之五,尽管它们所占土地面积的份额是其两倍。

 

与其他传统主粮作物(小米、高粱和豆类)相比,玉米对东非可能有更大的贸易机会,尽管后者在次区域种植模式中很重要。

 

在西非萨赫勒地区,尽管水果占据了次区域土地面积的近 40%,但稻米和蔬菜可能更具竞争力。(但是,数据不准确可能会改变结果。)

 

  1. 当作物在一国(尽管不是在次区域)经济和贸易中发挥重要作用时,就会选择具有潜在竞争力的国别作物。这些作物详情如下,需要各国政府予以关注。

 

在北非,具有潜在竞争力的特定国家作物包括: 葡萄(阿尔及利亚和埃及);马铃薯(阿尔及利亚);豆类(毛里塔尼亚);和大米(埃及和毛里塔尼亚)。

 

在东非,具有潜在竞争力的特定国家作物包括: 豆类(布隆迪、坦桑尼亚);小米(厄立特里亚);马铃薯(厄立特里亚);甘蔗(肯尼亚);高粱(厄立特里亚、埃塞俄比亚和索马里);和小麦(厄立特里亚和埃塞俄比亚)。

 

在中部非洲,具有潜在竞争力的特定国家作物包括: 可可(喀麦隆、赤道几内亚以及圣多美和普林西比);咖啡(喀麦隆、中非共和国和赤道几内亚);油棕榈果(赤道几内亚、圣多美和普林西比以及中非共和国);甘蔗(刚果共和国和加蓬);和芝麻(中非共和国)。

 

在西非沿海地区,具有潜在竞争力的特定国家作物包括: 咖啡(科特迪瓦、几内亚、利比里亚、塞拉利昂);花生(几内亚和几内亚比绍);油棕榈果(几内亚、几内亚比绍和利比里亚);和大米(几内亚、几内亚比绍和利比里亚)。

 

在西非萨赫勒地区,具有潜在竞争力的特定国家作物包括: 玉米(布基纳法索、马里和佛得角);籽棉(布基纳法索和马里);木薯(冈比亚、塞内加尔、佛得角和尼日尔);和水果(塞内加尔和佛得角)。

 

在南部非洲,具有潜在竞争力的特定国家作物包括: 向日葵(博茨瓦纳);马铃薯(莱索托和马拉维);大米(马达加斯加);小米(纳米比亚);和小麦(莱索托)。

 

  1. 根据特定动物类型在次区域总产出(以世界出口单位价值表示)中的相对重要性,选择具有潜在竞争力的次区域动物类型。所有动物类型在各个次区域都具有不同程度的比较优势。因此,它们值得根据非洲发展新伙伴关系-非洲农业综合发展计划进行投资。接下来是具有潜在竞争力的特定国家动物类型,这些动物类型在国家生产中占有重要份额(以世界出口单位价值表示)。绵羊被选为莱索托、纳米比亚、南非、赞比亚、喀麦隆、刚果民主共和国、刚果共和国、赤道几内亚和加蓬。此外,鸡被选为赤道几内亚、圣多美和普林西比、加蓬、利比里亚、毛里求斯和赞比亚的国家特有动物类型。同样,科特迪瓦、几内亚比绍、塞舌尔和利比里亚也选择了生猪。由于萨赫勒地区、干旱的西南非洲、埃塞俄比亚高原和东非普遍养牛,因此继续采取措施改善畜牧业管理和畜产品市场开发是适当的。

 

  1. 东非、西非沿海、中非(不包括乍得)和南部非洲等具有潜在竞争力的次区域应高度优先投资非洲发展新伙伴关系-非洲农业综合发展计划下的林业发展。每个次区域几乎每个国家的森林覆盖率都超过次区域森林和林地面积的5%,应加大力度利用自然比较优势。然而,南非在出口主要源自人工林的高价值林产品方面处于领先地位,这对现实世界来说是一个讽刺,它破坏了基于自然资源禀赋的比较优势概念。

 

  1. 还选择了海洋渔业发展具有潜在竞争力的沿海次区域。由于缺乏全面的统计数据,特别是关于水产养殖分部门当前经济表现的统计数据,因此仅审查了海洋渔业部门及其发展潜力。以EEMZ的规模和占非洲总量的比重作为筛选指标,判断次区域海洋渔业发展潜力。EEMZ 所占的份额在次区域之间差异很大,从中部非洲的 72 万平方英里(5.5%)到南部非洲的 580 万平方英里(占非洲总面积的 44%)。占 EEMZ 总额 5% 以上的所有股份均已指定用于 CAADP 的进一步投资。一般来说,各国对该次区域海洋总产量的贡献与其在该次区域海洋生产总量中所占的份额不成比例。

 

  1. 次区域-世界和主要国家生产率差异的实证结果表明,绝大多数作物(包括水果、蔬菜、木薯、玉米、小米、橄榄、大米、葡萄、花生、籽棉和小麦)不具备技术竞争力。在生产力方面,只有咖啡、可可、甘蔗、烟草和山药是具有全球竞争力的次区域作物。因此,应根据国家的实际土地生产力,采取两种差异化战略的结合:(1)对生产技术的大量投资和/或(2)对增值技术的大量投资。此外,为加强非洲次区域之间的贸易提供政治支持也将是有益的,特别是对于主粮作物而言。因此,对非洲内部(国家之间和次区域本身之间)的贸易流动模式进行更多分析将有助于描述非洲国家之间可能更容易和/或更便宜地交易的农产品。此外,应加强和落实促进次区域和区域贸易流动的区域政策、机制和相关机构。

 

  1. 生产者与世界价格差异分析的实证结果证实,在大多数情况下,与世界通行价格及其竞争对手相比,非洲生产者得到的收入很少。非洲的可可、咖啡(利比里亚除外)、花生(加蓬除外)、玉米(纳米比亚、南非、肯尼亚、索马里和埃塞俄比亚除外)、橄榄、大米(冈比亚和利比里亚除外)和向日葵生产国仅收到一小部分的世界价格。木薯生产商(除利比里亚和尼日利亚外的所有西非沿海国家)也被不同程度地“征税”。尽管他们的竞争对手获得的价格略低于世界价格,但大多数竞争对手的利润要高得多,主要是因为它们在生产、营销和贸易方面具有更高的生产率和规模经济。然而,不同作物和不同国家的“税收”水平差异很大。

 

  1. 事实上,生产者生产力和效率并不是竞争力的唯一要素。对农业产出持续增长和贸易活跃的制约因素的分析强调,非洲国家(尽管拥有丰富的自然禀赋)竞争力水平较低,主要是由于当前经济、社会和政治条件不稳定的结果。非洲农民经营和贸易条件的主要特征包括:

 

农业部门对天气的严重依赖。

 

非洲农业普遍存在小块土地——很少超过五公顷,常常不到一公顷——是另一个结构性限制。这种情况阻碍了生产商有竞争力地扩大产量和出口量的长期能力。

 

贫困和文盲的劳动力无法获得信息、教育和医疗服务。在一些国家,这些人口因内乱和疾病爆发,特别是艾滋病毒/艾滋病而不堪重负。

 

政策改革(结构调整和宏观经济稳定方案忽视了严重的体制缺陷)导致公共治理机构薄弱,从而导致高昂的交易成本,阻碍了私营部门的出现和发展。

 

持续存在的问题(由于技术落后、储存设施不足、缺乏包装材料和适当的加工能力而导致收获后损失)损害了小型和大型加工商的增值优势和生产力。由于农业分散,后者面临原材料供应不足和中断的问题。

 

农村基础设施状况不佳,导致大多数农村家庭无法进入市场,也无法有效连接生产和贸易商品链。对于内陆国家来说,情况尤其严峻,其运输系统一体化程度低且效率低下,对非洲国家的贸易竞争力产生了严重影响。对于一些非洲内陆国家来说,运输和保险占出口总值的 30% 以上(马拉维、乍得和卢旺达的比例超过 50%)。

 

与知识生产及其向最终用户传播有关的问题并未得到高度重视。此外,该地区许多国家都存在出口作物偏见,这种偏见可以追溯到殖民时代,当时农业研究资源强调以牺牲本土粮食作物为代价出口作物。因此,非洲在培育适合当地的改良品种和技术方面落后于大多数其他发展中地区。

 

由于农田过度开发、牧场过度放牧、森林砍伐和水资源管理不善,人为造成的自然资源退化加速,包括荒漠化,特别是在萨赫勒地区。

 

非洲许多地区的可用淡水资源有限,这些地区每年和/或季节性面临极端的气候变化。由于灌溉农业是地表水资源和地下水资源的主要使用者,因此为所有消费者(农业、工业和私人)优化水资源管理应成为优先事项。同时应保持自然生态系统的完整性和生产力。一般来说,农业生产受到灌溉农业作用较小的限制。灌溉土地只占可耕地的一小部分(仅占非洲可耕地的 7%,占撒哈拉以南非洲可耕地的 3.7%)。这些是发展中国家灌溉土地比例最低的。

 

  1. 由于资源禀赋、经济和社会发展水平、挑战和机遇各不相同,非洲次区域具有多样性,因此无法制定统一的方法来提高农业竞争力。因此,要解决农业生产力低下和效率低下的问题,必须突出次区域资源基础差异的要素,并找出每个次区域具体发展的关键土地和水资源制约因素。这些关键限制总结如下。

 

在北非:

 

– 由于水管理不善导致水资源短缺,导致不可持续的取水率超过尼罗河和塞内加尔河的水更新能力;

– 过度灌溉导致土壤退化;

– 缺乏农作物-畜牧业综合系统的政策;

– 气候变化和不可持续的人口增长对农业用地造成的压力;

– 人口密度高,主要集中在雨养地区。

 

在东非(包括非洲之角):

 

– 由于低集约化和多样化导致土壤肥力下降;

– 技术利用不足,主要是由于资本稀缺以及投入和产出市场不发达;

– 偏远小农的政治孤立;

– 由于河流、地下含水层和小型水库干涸,导致水资源短缺和水质恶化,导致牲畜死亡,用户之间对水权的竞争加剧;

– 高原陡峭土地受到严重侵蚀。

 

在中部非洲:

 

– 土地退化加剧(在乍得,荒漠化加剧),主要原因是过度耕种、没有足够的休耕期和缺乏投入而导致肥力丧失。

– 水资源管理不善,导致淡水污染程度增加,主要来自工业和污水外流、农业径流和盐水入侵。

 

在西非:

– 肥力丧失、荒漠化严重和灌溉系统维护不善导致土壤退化。

– 由于缺乏有效的共享水资源跨境监督和协调机制,以及缺乏标准和法律执行,导致水资源管理不善。

 

在南部非洲:

 

– 由于日益增加的人口增长压力和过度放牧,以及高昂的灌溉成本和土地使用冲突,土壤退化程度日益恶化。

– 由于人类和动物种群对水资源的压力日益增加而导致水质恶化。

 

  1. 与整个非洲次区域相关的林业和野生动物部门经济增长面临的主要跨领域挑战如下:

 

-许多林业产品的市场不完善,将资源转化为可出口的高价值产品的能力有限;

-资本的偏向集中对农村居民不利,使他们在增长和社会发展方面处于不利地位;

-充满活力、缺乏机构知名度的非正规部门占主导地位;

-地方和中层政府和社区机构优化管理资源的能力较低,特别是在增加经济价值的活动方面。

 

  1. 根据主要林业农业生态区,分区域特有的林业和野生动物发展的主要问题、威胁和机遇总结如下。

 

在西非和中非沿海的潮湿森林中:

– 人口不断增加,加上不可持续的轮耕和不合理的工业化采伐;

– 树木和森林保有权制度不明确和模糊;

– 治理和监管体系薄弱,特别是在偏远地区,对潜在利润丰厚的非木材森林产品没有正式的管理安排。这些仍然主要用于家庭和更广泛的社会消费和贸易。传统上只管理工业木材生产。

 

在东部和南部非洲中部高原(林地):

 

– 降雨量少且多变,以及漫长的旱季。这两种条件都限制了地表水和土壤湿度,并鼓励动物和人类迁徙。

– 贫瘠土壤占主导地位,限制了养分的利用;

– 由于气候和人类活动而频繁发生火灾;

– 人类在林地居住了几个世纪,尽管人口密度较低;

– 艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行病发病率高,一些国家是世界上感染率最高的国家。

 

在东部和南部非洲高原和高地:

 

– 水过多或缺水,而水的质量往往很差。其结果可能导致山洪暴发、侵蚀、山体滑坡和土壤养分流失,从而限制或削弱生物生产力并影响人类健康。林业对水源保护的贡献可能是非洲高原最重要的发展问题。

– 非洲许多高原地区的流行中心。非洲被认为是小麦和咖啡的天然故乡,这只是对人类重要的非洲作物中的一小部分。

– 成功的工业种植园。南非是一个普遍干旱的国家,天然森林很少,但却是林产品的主要出口国,这些产品来自高地的人工林。该国占非洲木浆产量的 79% 和非洲木浆出口的 71%。它生产了非洲 71% 的纸张和纸板,占非洲出口量的 94%(截至 2000 年)。南非的生产和贸易竞争力与其非常有限的天然森林资源存在显着差异。种植园还支持肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚的造纸业以及肯尼亚、马达加斯加、马拉维、坦桑尼亚、赞比亚和津巴布韦的其他木材加工业。

 

  1. 海洋渔业作为非洲许多国家和社区的粮食、就业和收入来源仍然非常重要。鱼蛋白是必需且至关重要的,尤其是对于人口稠密国家居民的饮食而言,这些国家的总蛋白质摄入水平可能较低。随着捕捞需求的增加,未充分开发和适度开发的资源数量持续减少。人们越来越关注捕捞对生态系统及其结构和功能的影响。当代小规模渔业社区主要采用手工开采鱼类资源的方式,并面临着严重的发展障碍。它们在非洲海洋生态系统中通常具有以下共同特征:

 

它们在地理上分散在海岸线,主要依赖于离家较近的海洋生态系统,这使得它们特别容易受到资源枯竭的影响。

 

他们承担小规模的资本承诺,导致生产水平低下,无法赋予社区权力。以社区为基础的管理往往薄弱,使手工渔业部门,尤其是大规模捕捞部门,容易受到外部威胁。

 

他们获得信贷和保险的机会有限或根本无法获得,这限制了捕捞努力和产量。相比之下,竞争的外国船队包括许多享受政府巨额补贴的运营商。

 

由于收获后处理不当,他们面临巨大损失。处理不当和食品安全问题仍然很重要,出口产品的标准也变得越来越严格。

 

他们日益受到外部问题的压力,包括不断扩大的全球化、海洋污染以及某些地区沿海旅游业的增长。

 

  1. 海洋渔业发展需要解决两大类制约因素。它们总结如下。

 

人们普遍认为渔业管理效率低下,用户群体之间的冲突也越来越频繁。工业船队和手工船队之间的冲突很常见。当渔业中有大量外国成分时,区域管理尤其有价值。由于需要共享外国船队的信息,区域渔业管理机构在打击非法、未报告和无管制捕捞方面可以发挥重要作用。

 

公共机构严重缺乏人力和财力。对于大多数非洲沿海国家来说,粮食安全、就业、减贫和公平获取资源被视为优先关注的问题。然而,由于程序设计或支持不充分,解决方案常常无法实现。

 

  1. 为了在非洲农业综合发展计划下提高整个非洲大陆农业的竞争力和投资盈利,确定了适用于所有非洲国家的主要跨领域优先行动方向(以及具体的次区域行动)。这些总结如下。

 

该地区的首要任务是改善基础设施(水和卫生、交通、储存和加工、能源、信息技术和通信)。为了实现以下目标,这一改进至关重要。希望这些改进将有助于可持续地提高农业产量和生产力,从而实现粮食安全和增加收入。此外,希望提高效率并降低农业投入和生产进入市场的成本。同时,这些改进可以减少区域外和区域内贸易的实体壁垒并降低成本,特别是内陆国家进出口成本过高。人们还希望这些改进将有助于减少困扰许多农民和农产品贸易商的收获后和储存损失。最后,有必要增加初级产品产出的价值并改善对现代贸易有用的市场信息的获取。发展政策和措施应透明,并由农业、林业、渔业、涉农企业和贸易的所有利益攸关方制定,以增强政策主人翁意识、有效性和效率。

 

为了确保自然资源的可持续利用,政府首先需要制定扩大耕地面积的战略框架。开发非洲大陆的土地、水和人力资源以及实现农业突出的潜力巨大。因此,迫切需要对有效的新土地供应量进行适当的评估。这对于确定土地是否适合种植农作物以及制定扩大耕地面积的战略框架非常重要。其次,各国政府必须在科学成果的基础上对自然资源管理抱有全面的愿景。非洲这些“优先产品”的开发应以科学研究为基础,并应考虑生产者的技术需求。各国政府应重视技术开发及其推广,以确保生产者迅速采用。推广服务越来越不能被学科或部门分开,而必须被视为包含农业、畜牧业和其他部门的综合农村经济的一部分。

 

应对日益增强的全球市场竞争力也给非洲带来了重要的政策挑战。因此,非洲国家需要在贸易便利化、市场准入和市场一体化方面采取具体行动,以便将贸易转变为增长和消除贫困的强大引擎,并从全球化中获益。此类战略的基本要素和优先事项需要包括促进区域内贸易以及生产和贸易多样化。其他必要的要素是提高和协调食品安全和质量标准,这是满足国际标准所必需的。最后,战略必须要求改善国外市场准入并加强与贸易相关的供应能力。

 

  1. 旨在缓解作物和动物生产中的土地和水限制的广泛的次区域具体干预领域概述如下。

 

在北非,设计一个复杂的咸水淡化计划和一个水土保持总体规划以显着改善国家水平衡非常重要。

 

在东非,改善偏远小农农业可获得的农业服务至关重要。偏远小农需要更频繁地参与政策辩论,以改善优先选择的制定、家庭福利和粮食安全。

 

在中部非洲,需要采取行动和计划来更有效地管理水资源、淡水质量和土壤肥力。需要努力应对森林砍伐(以及乍得的严重荒漠化)的影响。

 

建议在西非采取几项行动。第一个是结合树木利用(特别是那些作为收入来源的树木)、粮食作物、化肥和保护性农业(零耕或最少耕)来提高土壤肥力。二是开展土地所有制改革。第三,为农民投资提高土地肥力和建立合作社提供激励措施很重要。最后,要对市场网点进行投资。

 

在南部非洲,获得水和先进技术以及机构能力建设应成为提高小规模农业生产力的优先事项。对于赞比亚、津巴布韦、博茨瓦纳、莫桑比克、马拉维和纳米比亚等面临缺水和降雨量变化的国家来说,采用严格的可持续水管理也很重要。

 

  1. 林业本身在扶贫方面的成效有限。相反,林业可能是解决消除贫困和环境稳定问题的更广泛生产努力的组成部分。扭转当前森林资源枯竭和退化的趋势至关重要,特别是通过保护和改善流域、防治荒漠化、防止土地退化和保护生物多样性。潮湿的非洲森林的生物丰富性也需要在经济发展规划中给予高度重视。通过适当的开发和营销,森林也许能够从重要作物品种的“利基市场”中产生更多的单位面积价值。有必要识别和利用基于“利基产品”的商业和地方经济机会,同时使工业采伐和森林再生与生物多样性保护相兼容。以未加工原木的形式出口森林产品也可能会出口就业机会和未来的繁荣。未来的研究应该导致:

 

鉴定主要农作物的野生近缘种以及保护重要农作物来源的最佳方法。这一点至关重要,因为土地使用压力使自然品种面临灭绝的威胁。独特的动物物种的高原栖息地也值得得到保护。

 

识别和促进其他植物或具有用作食品或药品潜力的增值植物产品的商业潜力。应优先考虑潜在用途已知的植物。很少有人在技术开发方面进行投资(无论是国内还是国外)来将这一潜力转化为现实。

 

发展国家和次区域研究实体和网络的政策和机构能力,以承担这些任务。

 

  1. 可以通过多种方式促进海洋渔业发展。在这方面,密切监测渔业管理措施对渔业子行业经济绩效的影响非常重要。此外,还应仔细观察补贴、经济激励和财政政策措施的影响。此外,应设计和实施保护手工渔业部门的特别行动。社区更多地参与手工渔业发展(从规划到财务方面)对于这些努力至关重要,改进的处理和加工技术也至关重要。最后,重要目标是解决工业船队和手工船队之间的冲突、加强区域渔业管理组织并提高其效率。

 

 

 

 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

 

  1. Under its Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) seeks to reverse Africa’s agricultural crises in the short-term by fostering economic growth in agriculture rooted in increased output productivity and efficiency and boosting its otherwise untapped comparative advantage. To allocate scarce financial resources efficiently under CAADP, agricultural products with a comparative advantage need to be identified, developed and traded with relatively little effort inside and outside Africa. Investments must have a high probability of commercial success, expected positive returns and economic viability.

 

  1. Facing the growing importance of an integrated global and regional economic and trade system, Africa’s sub-regions and countries need to promote their respective comparative advantages jointly. With this requirement in mind, this study is intended to:

 

identify by sub-region and country potentially competitive crop, livestock, forestry and fishery products that not only could meaningfully advance food security and reduce poverty on the African continent, but also significantly improve its world and intra-regional trade prospects.

 

identify broad areas of action and types of investment to develop selected potentially competitive products, based on the analysis of underlying agro-ecological and socio-economic constraints in each sub-region.

 

  1. To take advantage of economies of scale and reach a critical mass that would drive productivity and income growth at both country and regional level, the identification of potentially competitive agricultural products was made by the main (five) agro-ecological sub-regions. These approximately coincide with the territories of the existing Regional Economic Groupings throughout Africa.

 

  1. The present study is based on the stock of technical knowledge and experience accumulated by the FAO in Africa. In order to estimate the needed screening parameters of the potentially competitive agricultural products, FAO time-series country data over the period 1996-2000 were used for land use, animal stocks, production and productivity, trade and producer prices for the products under analysis. The concepts of comparative advantage and competitiveness served as the basis for the analysis and the selection of individual product’s income-generation and export potential.

 

  1. The selection of potentially competitive sub-regional crops/animal types was based on the production-cum-trade-opportunities criterion. This selection reflected not only each product’s significance in production structure but also its trade potential. The relative importance (i.e. over five percent of each crop/animal type in the sub-region’s total output expressed in world trade unit values) has been the screening indicator. Potentially competitive crops/types of animals that account for less than five percent of sub-regional total production but exceed five percent of a country’s total output trade value, were designated potentially competitive ‘country specific’ crops/animal types. The comparison between the current production pattern at both sub-regional and country levels and that resulting from the screening against production-cum-trade-opportunities criterion was sometimes surprising. It is recognised however that there are other reasons that could lead to prioritization of a product for investment. Prolonged heavy dependence on imports could be one, e.g. rice in West Africa.

 

  1. Because of inaccessible and/or incomplete time-series data for forestry/fisheries products by category, the natural endowment in forestry and fishery resources (by sub-region and country) has been the screening parameter. The identification of the potentially competitive sub-regions/countries for forestry development and wildlife conservation has been made based on the respective share of forests and woodland area in Africa’s total. The area of a sub-region or country that lies within the Exclusive Economic Marine Zone (EEMZ) has been taken as a proxy indicator for the potential for marine fishery development.

 

  1. An attempt was made to estimate both the technological and cost-competitiveness of crops. Because complete production – cost data were unavailable, producer price was used as a proxy indicator for assessing crop cost-competitiveness at the present technological level. Producer price is an appropriate proxy indicator because it is the observed revenue per unit of output received by farmers and it incorporates the underlying production cost. For export crops, world prices (expressed by FOB export prices) represent the benchmark that governments consider stimulating domestic production and exports. The difference between producer prices and world prices simultaneously incorporates the effects of a host of domestic factors that impacts crops and causes producer prices to diverge from world export prices. The lack of historical and more recent data on producer prices for crops in FAO Statistical Databases (FAOSTAT) constrained the price deferential analysis to the period 1991-1995.

 

  1. The screening process led to the following potentially competitive crops at the sub-regional level. As expected, traditional export crops have high competitive potential for the respective sub-region (coffee for East Africa, cocoa and yams for Coastal West Africa and groundnuts for both Central and Sahel West Africa). Olives and wheat were selected as some of the potentially competitive crops for North Africa. Grapes, maize, sugar cane, vegetables and tobacco hold promise for expanding production and trade in Southern Africa. Millet, sorghum and groundnuts were identified as potentially competitive crops for Sahel West Africa.

 

  1. The designation of potentially competitive crops differs, sometimes remarkably, from their actual share of land cover (indicating ‘naturally suitability’) at the sub-regional level. For instance:

 

Vegetables and fruits have an important economic role and trade potential in all sub-regions (except for fruits in Sahel West Africa), despite their relatively small share in the sub-regional land area. Surprisingly, in North Africa vegetables cover less than five percent of land area, though they represent as much as 44 percent of sub-regional output trade value. In Coastal West Africa, vegetables and fruits have been added to the list of sub-regional potentially competitive crops, eliminating maize, millet, rice and sorghum (which seem to find naturally suitable conditions in that part of Africa).

 

Rice was selected as a potentially competitive crop for Sahel West and Sahel Central Africa (Chad), though its production and trade potential is marginal (seven percent of sub-regional output trade value). In Chad, vegetables and rice outweigh seed cotton in terms of economic importance in the country’s production (expressed in world trade values).

 

In Central Africa, coffee and cocoa’s shares in sub-regional production (expressed in world trade values) do not surpass five percent, while both crops hold 17-18 percent in the sub-regional cropping pattern. Similarly, oil-palm fruit, maize and sorghum play a minor contribution in the sub-region’s total output trade value, on average representing less than five percent, although their share in land area is two times larger.

 

Maize might have greater trade opportunities for East Africa when compared with other traditional staple crops (millet, sorghum and pulses), despite the latter group’s importance in the sub-regional cropping pattern.

 

In Sahel West Africa, though fruits hold nearly 40 percent of sub-regional land area, rice and vegetables are potentially more competitive. (However, data inaccuracy might alter the results.)

 

  1. Potentially competitive country-specific crops were selected when crops had a significant role in a country’s (though not in the sub-regional) economy and trade. These crops are detailed below and require attention by the respective national governments.

 

In North Africa potentially competitive country-specific crops include: grapes (Algeria and Egypt); potatoes (Algeria); pulses (Mauritania); and rice (Egypt and Mauritania).

 

In East Africa potentially competitive country-specific crops include: pulses (Burundi, Tanzania); millet (Eritrea); potatoes (Eritrea); sugar cane (Kenya); sorghum (Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia); and wheat (Eritrea and Ethiopia).

 

In Central Africa potentially competitive country-specific crops include: cocoa (Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea and Saõ Tomé and Principé); coffee (Cameroon, Central African Republic and Equatorial Guinea); oil-palm fruit (Equatorial Guinea, Saõ Tomé and Principé and Central African Republic); sugar cane (Republic of Congo and Gabon); and sesame (Central African Republic).

 

In Coastal West Africa potentially competitive country-specific crops include: coffee (Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone); groundnuts (Guinea and Guinea-Bissau); oil-palm fruits (Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Liberia); and rice (Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Liberia).

 

In Sahel West Africa potentially competitive country-specific crops include: maize (in Burkina Faso, Mali and Cape Verde); seed cotton (in Burkina Faso and Mali); cassava (in Gambia, Senegal, Cape Verde and Niger); and fruits (in Senegal and Cape Verde).

 

In Southern Africa potentially competitive country-specific crops include: sunflower (Botswana); potatoes (Lesotho and Malawi); rice (Madagascar); millet (Namibia); and wheat (Lesotho).

 

  1. Potentially competitive sub-regional animal types were selected according to the relative importance of a given animal type in the total sub-regional output (expressed in world export unit value). All animal types have comparative advantage to various degrees across sub-regions. Therefore, they warrant investment under NEPAD-CAADP. Potentially competitive country-specific animal types that have an important share in country’s production (expressed in world export unit value) follow. Sheep were chosen for Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo and the Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon. In addition, chicken was selected as a country-specific animal type for Equatorial Guinea, Saõ Tomé and Principé, Gabon, Liberia, Mauritius and Zambia. Similarly, pigs were selected for Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Seychelles and Liberia. Because cattle raising is prevalent in the Sahel, dry southwest Africa, the Ethiopian highlands and East Africa, the continuation of measures to improve husbandry management and animal products market development is appropriate.

 

  1. Potentially competitive sub-regions that should place high priority for investing in forestry development under NEPAD-CAADP are East Africa, Coastal West Africa, Central Africa (excluding Chad) and Southern Africa. Nearly every country in each sub-region has forest covering more than five percent of the sub-region’s forest and woodland area and should intensify efforts to exploit the natural comparative advantage. However, South Africa’s leading position in exporting high-value forest products originating mainly from plantation forests is a real world irony that undermines the concept of comparative advantage based on natural resource endowment.

 

  1. Potentially competitive coastal sub-regions for marine fishery development were also selected. Due to the lack of comprehensive statistics in particular on the aquaculture subsector’s current economic performance, only the marine fishery sector and its potential for development have been examined. Sub-regional potential for marine fishery development has been judged using the size and share of EEMZ in Africa’s total as a screening indicator. The share of EEMZ varies widely among sub-regions, from 720 thousand square miles in Central Africa (5.5 percent) to 5.8 million square miles in Southern Africa (44 percent of Africa’s total). All of the shares representing more than five percent of the total EEMZ have been designated for further investment under CAADP. In general countries contribute disproportionately to the sub-region’s total marine production with respect to their share of EEMZ in the sub-region’s total.

 

  1. The empirical results of the sub-regional – world and leading countries’ productivity differentials suggest that the large majority of crops (including fruit, vegetables, cassava, maize, millet, olives, rice, grapes, groundnuts, seed cotton and wheat) are not technologically competitive. Only coffee, cocoa, sugar cane, tobacco and yams are globally competitive sub-regional crops in terms of productivity. Therefore, a combination of two differentiated strategies, depending on the country’s actual land productivity should be pursued: (1) substantial investment in production technologies and/or (2) substantial investment in value-addition technologies. In addition, development of political support to enhance trade between African sub-regions would also be beneficial, particularly for staple food crops. More analysis of the pattern of trade flows within Africa (among countries and sub-regions themselves) would therefore be instrumental to depict agricultural products that may be more easily and/or cheaply traded among African countries. In addition, regional policies, mechanisms and relevant institutions to enhance sub-regional and regional trade flows should be strengthened and implemented.

 

  1. The empirical results of producer – world price divergence analysis confirmed that in most cases African producers receive very little compared with the prevailing world price and their competitors. The African producers of cocoa, coffee (except Liberia), groundnuts (except Gabon), maize (except Namibia, South Africa, Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia), olives, rice (except Gambia and Liberia) and sunflower have received only a small fraction of the world prices. Cassava producers (in all Coastal West African countries except Liberia and Nigeria) have also been ‘taxed’ to various degrees. Although their competitors have obtained a price somewhat inferior to the world price, most of these competitors have been much more profitable primarily because of their higher productivity and economies of scale in production, marketing and trade. The ‘taxation’ level, however, varies widely among crops and countries alike.

 

  1. In reality, producer productivity and efficiency are not the sole ingredients of competitiveness. The analysis of constraints to sustained agricultural output growth and dynamic trade emphasized that the low level of competitiveness in African countries (despite rich natural endowments) is principally the result of the precarious state of the prevailing economic, social and political conditions. The main characteristics of these conditions under which African farmers operate and trade, include the following:

 

heavy dependence of the agricultural sector on the weather.

 

prevalence of small holdings in African agriculture – seldom exceeding five ha and often less than one ha – is an additional structural limitation. This situation hampers the long-term capacity of producers to competitively expand output and export volumes.

 

an impoverished and illiterate workforce with no access to information, education and health services. This population is overwhelmed, in some countries, by civil strife and disease outbreaks, particularly the HIV/AIDS.

 

weak public institutions of governance as a result of policy reforms (under the structural adjustment and macro-economic stabilization programmes that overlooked serious institutional deficiencies), translating into high transaction costs that prevent the private sector to emerge and grow.

 

persistent problems (related to post-harvest losses due to backward technologies, inadequate storage facilities, lack of packing materials and appropriate processing capacity) compromising the value-added advantage and productivity of both small and large-scale processors. The latter face an insufficient and disrupted supply of raw material as a result of the scattered nature of farming.

 

the poor state of rural infrastructure denying most rural households access to markets and failing to effectively link the production – trade commodity chain. The situation is especially critical for the landlocked countries, whose poorly integrated and inefficient transport systems have had a crippling effect on the African countries’ trade competitiveness. For a number of landlocked African countries transport and insurance represent more than 30 percent of the total value of exports (more than 50 percent in Malawi, Chad and Rwanda).

 

low priority being given to issues pertaining to the production of knowledge and its dissemination to end-users. Moreover, many countries in the region suffer from an export-crop bias, dating back to the colonial era when resources for agricultural research emphasized export crops at the cost of indigenous food crops. As a result, Africa has lagged behind most other developing regions in generating improved varieties and technologies that are locally adaptable.

 

accelerated human-induced degradation of natural resources including desertification, particularly in Sahel, due to the overexploitation of cropland, the overgrazing of rangelands, deforestation and poor water management.

 

limited availability of usable freshwater resources in many parts of Africa, which face extreme climatic variability on an annual and/or seasonal basis. Because irrigated agriculture is the principal user of surface and groundwater resources, optimal management of water resources for all consumers (agricultural, industrial and private) should be a priority. At the same time the integrity and productivity of natural ecosystems should be maintained. In general agricultural production is constrained by the small role played by irrigated agriculture. Irrigated land is a very small share of arable land (only 7 percent of arable African land and 3.7 percent of arable land in Sub-Saharan Africa). These are the lowest percentages of irrigated land in the developing world.

 

  1. The diversity of Africa’s sub-regions owing to variations in resource endowments, levels of economic and social development, challenges and opportunities makes it impossible to prescribe a homogeneous approach to upgrade competitiveness in agriculture. To address the issues of low productivity and efficiency in agriculture, it is essential, therefore, to highlight the elements of sub-regional differences in terms of their resource base and to identify key land and water constraints to development specific to each sub-region. These key constraints are summarized below.

 

In North Africa:

 

– water scarcity due to poor water management that induces unsustainable water withdrawal rates that exceed the water renewal capacities of the Nile and Senegal rivers;

 

– soil degradation due to excessive irrigation;

 

– lack of policies for an integrated crop-livestock system;

 

– climate change and unsustainable population growth pressures on agricultural land;

 

– high population density that is mainly in rain-fed areas.

 

In East Africa (including Horn of Africa):

 

– decreasing soil fertility due to low intensification and diversification;

 

– inadequate technology use owing mainly to the scarcity of capital and the undeveloped input and output markets;

 

– political isolation of remote smallholders;

 

– water scarcity and deteriorating water quality due to the drying up of rivers, underground aquifers and small reservoirs, leading to the death of livestock and increased competition among users over water rights;

 

– severe erosion of steep lands off the plateaux.

 

In Central Africa:

 

– advanced land degradation (and, in Chad, advanced desertification) due mainly to fertility loss from over-cultivation without sufficient fallow periods and a lack of inputs.

 

– mismanagement of water resources, leading to increased pollution levels in fresh water mainly from industry and sewage outflows, agricultural run-off and saltwater intrusion.

 

In West Africa:

 

– soil degradation from fertility loss, advanced desertification and poorly maintained irrigation schemes.

 

– mismanagement of water resources due to an absence of effective cross-border oversight and coordinating mechanisms for shared water resources, as well as a lack of standards and enforcement of laws.

 

In Southern Africa:

 

– worsening levels of soil degradation because of increasing population-growth pressures and overgrazing, as well as the prohibitive costs of irrigation and conflicts over land use.

 

– deterioration of water quality caused by the increasing pressure of human and animal populations on water resources.

 

  1. The major cross-cutting challenges to the economic growth of the forestry and wildlife sector, which are relevant across African sub-regions, are the following:

 

poorly established markets for many forestry products and a limited capacity to convert resources into exportable high-value products;

 

a biased concentration of capital that works against rural dwellers, placing them at a disadvantage in terms of growth and social development;

 

the predominance of a dynamic informal sector that has no institutional visibility;

 

the low capacity of local and mid-level government and community institutions to manage resources optimally, particularly for activities that add economic value.

 

  1. The main issues, threats and opportunities for forestry and wildlife development that are specific to sub-regions are summarized below according to the main forestry agro-ecological zones.

 

In the Humid Forests in Coastal West and Central Africa:

 

– increasing population combined with unsustainable shifting cultivation and irrational industrial harvesting;

 

– unclear and ambiguous tree and forest tenure systems;

 

– weak governance and regulatory systems, particularly in remote areas, with no formal management arrangements for potentially lucrative non-timber forest products. These remain largely available for household and wider society consumption and trade. Only industrial timber production is traditionally administered.

 

In the Eastern and Southern African Middle Plateaux (woodlands):

 

– low and variable rainfall, as well as a long dry season. Both of these conditions limit surface water and soil moisture and encourage migration of animals and people.

 

– predominance of poor soils that limit nutrient availability;

 

– frequent fires as a result of climate and human activities;

 

– human habitation in the woodlands, albeit at low population densities, for centuries;

 

– high incidence of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, with several countries having among the highest infection rates in the world.

 

In the Eastern and Southern African plateaux and highlands:

 

– either an overabundance or a lack of water, which is frequently of poor quality. The results can lead to flash flooding, erosion, landslides and soil leaching its nutrients, which can limit or curtail biological productivity and impact human health. The contribution of forestry to water source protection is probably the most important developmental issue in the African Plateaux.

 

– endemic centres in many highland areas of Africa. Africa is believed to be the natural home of wheat and coffee, to name just a few of the crops important to mankind with African origins.

 

– successful industrial plantations. South Africa, a generally dry country with insignificant natural forests, is the leading exporter of forest products, which are derived from forest plantations in the highlands. The country accounts for 79 percent of African wood pulp production and 71 percent of African wood pulp exports. It produced 71 percent of African paper and paperboard and accounted for 94 percent of their exports (as of 2000). South Africa’s production and trade competitiveness diverges strikingly from its very limited endowment of natural forests. Plantations also support paper industries in Kenya and Tanzania and other wood processing industries in Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

 

  1. Marine fisheries remain very important as a source of food, employment and revenue in many countries and communities in Africa. Fish proteins are essential and critical especially for the diet of inhabitants in densely populated countries, where the total protein-intake level may be low. The number of under-exploited and moderately exploited resources continues to decline as fishing demands increase. Interest is growing about the impact fishing may have on ecosystems, their structure and function. Contemporary small-scale fishing communities predominantly practice artisanal-level exploitation of fish resources and share serious obstacles to development. They usually share the following characteristics across Africa’s marine ecosystems:

 

They are geographically scattered along coastlines and depend mainly on marine ecosystems that are close to home, which makes them particularly vulnerable to resource depletion.

 

They undertake small-scale capital commitments, which result in low production levels that do not empower the community. Community-based management is often weak and makes the artisanal fishery sector vulnerable to external threats, especially the large-scale fishing sector.

 

They have limited or no access to credit and insurance, which constrains fishing effort and production. By contrast, competing foreign fleets include many operators that enjoy heavy state subsidies from their governments.

 

They face huge losses because of poor post-harvest processing. Poor handling and food safety issues remain important, and standards have become increasingly stringent for export products.

 

They are increasingly pressured by external problems, including expanding globalization, marine pollution and, in some regions, the growth of a coastal tourism industry.

 

  1. Two major classes of constraints would need to be addressed for marine fishery development. They are summarized below.

 

Fishery management is widely considered to be ineffective, and conflicts are becoming more frequent among user groups. Conflict between industrial and artisanal fleets is common. Regional management is particularly valuable when fisheries have a large foreign component. Because of the need to share information on foreign fleets, regional fishery-management bodies have an important role to play in combating illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing.

 

Public institutions are critically short of human and financial resources. For most coastal countries in Africa food security, employment, poverty alleviation and equitable access to resources are seen as priority concerns. However, solutions often are not realized because programmes are not adequately designed or supported.

 

  1. In order to improve competitiveness and investment profitably in agriculture throughout the continent under CAADP, major cross-cutting directions of priority action that apply to all African countries (together with specific sub-regional actions) were identified. These are summarized below.

 

The region’s overriding priority is to improve infrastructure (water and sanitation, transportation, storage and processing, energy, information technology and communication). This improvement is vital in order to accomplish the following. It is hoped that improvements would help to achieve increased agricultural production and productivity sustainably for food security and income enhancement. In addition, it is hoped to improve efficiency and reduce costs to reach markets for agricultural inputs and production. At the same time, such improvements could reduce physical barriers to and lower the costs of extra-and intra-regional trade, particularly the overly high costs incurred by land-locked countries on their imports and exports. It is also hoped that these improvement would facilitate the reduction of post-harvest and storage losses that plague many farmers and produce traders. Finally, adding value to the primary product output and improving access to market information that is instrumental for modern trade would be necessary. Development policies and measures should be transparent and designed by all involved stakeholders in agriculture, forestry, fishery, agribusiness and trade to increase a sense of policy ownership, effectiveness and efficiency.

 

To ensure sustainable natural resource utilization governments first need to develop a strategic framework for expanding cultivable areas. There is a substantial potential for developing the continent’s land, water and human resources and achieving prominence in agriculture. Therefore, there is an urgent need for an appropriate evaluation of the effective new land availability. This is important to determine the lands’ suitability for crops and to develop a strategic framework for expanding cultivable areas. Second, governments must embrace a holistic vision in natural resource-base management based on scientific results. The development of these ‘priority products’ in Africa should be grounded in scientific research, which should consider the technological needs of producers. Governments should place emphasis on technological development and its extension to ensure rapid adoption by producers. Increasingly, extension services cannot be separated by discipline or sector, but must be regarded as part of the integrated rural economy that incorporates agriculture, livestock husbandry and other sectors.

 

Coping with increased global market competititiveness also presents an important policy challenge to Africa. Concrete actions regarding trade facilitation, market access and market integration by the African countries will therefore be required in order to transform trade into a powerful engine for growth and poverty eradication, and to draw benefits from globalization. The basic elements and priorities of such strategies, would need to include promoting intra-regional trade and diversifying production and trade. Other necessary elements would be the raising and harmonizing of food safety and quality standards that are necessary for meeting international standards. Finally, strategies must require improving access to foreign markets and strengthening trade-related supply capacity.

 

  1. Broad sub-regionally specific areas of intervention aimed at alleviating land and water constraints in crop and animal production are summarized below.

 

In North Africa the design of a complex programme to desalinate brackish water and a master plan for soil and water conservation to make major improvements in national water balances are important.

 

In East Africa improving agricultural services available to remote smallholder agriculture is vital. Remote smallholders need to be involved more frequently in policy debate in order to improve priority-options development, household welfare and food security.

 

In Central Africa actions and programmes need to be implemented to manage water resources, fresh-water quality and soil fertility more effectively. Effort is needed to battle the effects of deforestation (and advanced desertification in Chad).

 

In West Africa several actions are recommended. The first is the combination of tree use (particularly those that are a source of income), food crops, fertilizers and conservation agriculture (with zero or minimum tillage) to improve soil fertility. Second, land-tenure system reform should be carried out. Third, the creation of incentives for farmers to invest in land-fertility improvement and to establish cooperatives is important. Finally, investment should be made in market outlets.

 

In Southern Africa access to water and advanced technologies, as well as institutional capacity building, should be priorities to enhance the productivity of small-scale farming. The employment of rigorous sustainable water management is also important for countries facing water scarcity and suffering from variable rainfall, such as Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Mozambique, Malawi and Namibia.

 

  1. Forestry on its own has shown limited effectiveness in alleviating poverty. Instead, forestry might be a component of wider production efforts to address poverty eradication and environmental stability. Reversing the current trends in forest-resource depletion and degradation is vital, especially through protecting and improving watersheds, combating desertification, preventing land degradation and conserving biological diversity. The biological richness of the humid African forests also requires critical attention in economic development planning. With appropriate development and marketing, forests may be able to generate more value per unit area from ‘niche-markets’ for important crop varieties. It is necessary to identify and exploit commercial and local economic opportunities based on ‘niche products’, while making industrial harvesting and forest regeneration compatible with biodiversity protection. Export of forest products as unprocessed logs may also be exporting jobs and future prosperity. Future research studies should lead to:

 

the identification of wild relatives for key agricultural crops and optimal methods to conserve important crop sources. This is critical because land-use pressures threaten the natural varieties with extinction. Unique animal species also deserve to have their highland habitats preserved.

 

the identification and promotion of the commercial potential for other plants or value-added plant products with potential for use as food or medicine. Priority should be placed on plants whose potential use is already known. Little investment has been made in technology development (either by domestic or foreign sources) to convert this potential into reality.

 

the development of policy and institutional capacity of national and sub-regional research entities and networks to undertake these tasks.

 

  1. Marine fishery development could be facilitated in many ways. In this connection, the close monitoring of the impact fishery-management measures have on the economic performance of the fishery sub-industries is important. In addition, a careful observation of the impact of subsidies, economic incentives and fiscal policies and measures should be made. Furthermore, the design and implementation of special efforts to protect the artisanal fishery sector should be carried out. Increased community participation in artisanal fisheries development (from planning to financial aspects) is vital to these efforts, as is improved handling and processing technologies. Finally, conflict resolution between industrial and artisanal fleets and strengthening regional fishery-management organizations, as well as making them more efficient, are important aims.